August 12, 2006

Global Economic Collapse Part II - Why 2006?





Part I Here












1. Life is a dynamic; a cyclic dynamic which obeys the fundamentals of the “Attentional Bell Curve”.

2. The Sustainability of Policies (top of the Bell Curve) in societal management (applied political science or government) depends on a number of factors:

a. The governing policies of governments.
b. The practices of government and the individuals within the political frameworks.
c. The integrity of governments and its members.
d. Societal perceptions and reactions to a. & b. & c. above.
e. The human behaviors and confidence levels of the public domain associated as a result of and reaction to all the above.
f. The sense or perceptions and expressions of individual physical & intellectual freedoms in the citizen base.

In other words, it is in the rapid acceleration of effects of human behaviors arising out of human perceptions, beliefs & levels of integrity (or lack thereof), which have dictated the commencement of the global economic collapse in 2006. The U.S. economy today is incomparably more vulnerable than in 2000.

Or, the measure of value as to the qualitative state of government and the integrity of the constraints (laws & moralities) imposed on society by that government, where the latter, nominally and by default, must a priori be of a dynamic characteristic and of a nature, not deterministically static; as is the case today.

3. A list of some main driver factors contributing to the US economic-financial-monetary decline:

a. The US apparent and obvious intensity of embrace of global hegemony
b. The US stated objective of Globalization – New World Order (NWO)
c. The US stated objective of a cull of global population to ~1 billion or so
d. The failures of the US warfare & occupation machinations
e. The abysmal & continuing failures of the United Nations (UN)
f. The driver “ideologies” of the neoconservative influences
g. The stated total lack of concern regarding US debt
h. The lack of concern for obvious environmental issues
i. The manipulated high emotional foundation and state of the US politic system in terms of its electorate and voter support
j. The fractured state of the US Executive, and Judiciary
k. The broken state of the US education & health systems
l. The dependence upon massive levels of US Debt
m. The defunct state of the domestic US manufacturing industry
n. The breakdown of the US internal rail infrastructures
o. US industrial ‘outsourcing’ and ‘tax-haven’ policies
p. Corporate executive corruption, inefficiencies and overvaluation of corporate worth as expressed through the Stock Exchange network processes.
q. The continual policies of secrecy & sophistry at White House levels as well as the deliberate destruction of the US Constitution and Bill of Rights. The US was founded as a Constitutional Republic and not as a “democracy” intentionally.
r. The total lack of interest in US domestic ill-health by the Administration
s. The adoption of fiscal financial-derivatives as securitization
t. The adoption of Hedge Funds for public investment
u. The overwhelming influence of the industrial and other lobbies
v. A total lack of philosophical and historical knowledge within the members of the US Administration and a preference for ill-founded ideologies as the foundation of Policy.
w. A totality of corruptibility, self-serving practises and apathy of US Congressmen and Senators
x. The Israeli political lobby AIPAC
y. The ruling influence of the USA ideologically orientated paradigms termed as 'malignant egophrenia'.

4. The two states of US Leadership in the George W. Bush Administration.

a. Either George W. Bush, the President of the most powerful nation on the planet, is deciding and directing USA Policy or he is not?
1. If he is, then a mentally ill, deranged, dangerous and intellectually challenged person is driving the USA and the World; to an event horizon of a new global dark age.
2. If he is not directing USA Policy, then who or what is?
3. There are seven (x7) scenarios to be considered: 1. The US Religious Right, 2. The failed USA economy 3. The AIPAC (State of Israel) lobby, 4. The neoconservative ideological influences, 5. The European Banking Cartels of the Anglo Dutch Liberal System 6. Industrial Oligarchical (* fascism) elites and 7. All of the stated above.

5. It is posited by this author that the whole of the above item 4 applies. This implies that the totality of societal excesses leading to the present are about to merge into a singular correction!
6. It can be observed that a decline has already well commenced in both terms of the USA’s economy and that of the Global economy – socially, fiscally, financially, monetarily, and politically and this is a process that is rapidly accelerating.
7. There is some stated consensual opinion that “war” will act as an economic-financial-monetary fix for the US economy - which has some historical merit for its arguments and the hastening in this direction by the US Administration is clearly observable on the World stage today (as has been the case for some time). Many statements from the US Administration suggest that a continuity of global wars initiated by the US will preferably continue for 30 more years or more; that is, a preference for an envisaged continuity of warfare ad infinitum.
8. The above implies the embraced belief that man is an animal or an evolved Darwinian Ape (for which there is not one shred of scientifically acceptable evidence) which in turn infers that man does not have the creative ability to use intellect as a tool to improve his/her condition but therefore must a priori revert in all instances to crasse animal behavior. In this instance; Warfare.
9. Which points to the current observable, most obvious and rapidly accelerating race between new US warfare and US economic-financial-monetary collapse!
10. There is a ubiquitous preference for sophistry by the US Administration in its accountability for its actions and this scenario is playing out in the European political circles as well; as elsewhere.
11. The US economic-financial-monetary system is fully entrenched globally; ubiquitously, throughout the World today; its accelerated decline will bring about Global collapse; this process is quickening and this increase in frequency appears to be accord with the laws of the Bell Curve.
12. This Global collapse when it occurs (during late 2006 and will continue into early 2007) will begin with Europe (after the USA) and then onto China and Japan; to start.
13. The next step will be exacerbated by the banking and financial-monetary systems to initially ‘default’ on its “customers” and then to move into “foreclosure” or repossession mode in a deterministic policy of cold opportunism supported by Law and Regulation.
14. The next impact will be the human psychological melt-down response by the disposed, helpless and unprepared – a global dark age then emerges.
15. Environmental factors: The 'cause', incorrectly perceived but categorized as “Global Warming” will seriously impact (is seriously impacting) global agriculture & water issues. Mass population instabilities will occur (are occurring) leading to mass migration, and political unrest; revolution albeit in terms of death, destruction and genocide.
16. The USA already openly categorizes itself as an Empire; the Roman Empire expired (collapsed) in a milieu of comfort, exuberance, enthusiasm; without warning and in totality; as will the USA.
17. The USA fiscal economic-monetary system was originally established uniquely and deliberately as a constitutionally system of credit controlled as a function of government as so defined during the period 1776 to 1789 by the combined impact of the U.S. Declaration of Independence and Federal Constitution: the so-called "Hamiltonian system" implicit in the fundamental law of the U.S. Federal Republic: the Preamble of the Federal Constitution. This system is in direct conflict with the European system of the Anglo-Dutch market free trade or Liberal system which grew out the bastardization of Napoleon’s Banque de France and the Paris Peace Treaty of February 1763.
18. The principal functional difference in quality between those two presently interacting systems, is that, under the U.S. Federal Constitution, money and the regulation of its circulation are a creation of the constitutional authority of the U.S. government; whereas, in the customary modern European systems since February 1763, government is a captive of private financier interests represented by an independent central banking "system," such as the despotic hierarchial 'bureaucratic' dominance of the European Central Bank of the present moment.
19. Each system has its own unique cycle and the two systems together create yet another cycle. In order to understand what is happening in the present time needs merely being able to appreciate the turmoil being created by the false perception that a single linear and consistent economic process is and has been in play on the World stage; where this is not the case at all. There is a strong ‘oxidization’ process being experienced on the fronts of these economic forces that is totally out-of-control due to economic “expert” misunderstanding and technical ignorance. As a result, incorrect and irrational manipulation or attempts at sympathetic correction only create greater expanding chaos.
20. It is already being reported as expected that the US Dollar will soon decline at least 25% in value
21. It is already being reported that there is now, at least, 40% probability of recession in the USA. The rapidly increasing processes of decline now in play suggest that 'recession' will almost immediately morph from recession into global depression without stopping for correction.
22. There are parties that are lobbying from within the USA for the Administration to devalue the US Dollar.
23. It has been reported that real inflation in the USA is in excess of 9%.
24. There is strong evidence that major global financial groups are selling off volatile stocks and moving investments into portfolios of natural resources and precious metals.
25. There are strong signs that Global liquidity is drying up which can only result in significant share value declines. Liquidity is not synonymous with 'credit'.
26. The publicly unexpected and fatal Israeli (for Israel – a fight that Israel cannot win, albeit alone) invasion into the whole of Lebanon which has been seemingly (as voiced by many quarters) had the full support of the USA White House; sets the stage for the worst case global scenario.
27. The USA is expected and will be “forced” to support Israel in its stated preference for a “new Middle East”. The Arab States have now shifted their political position to diplomatically supporting Hezbollah. Syria and Iran appear without dissent as the next two targets for the USA and its allies; WWIII.
28. But the single event; the trigger for the US economic collapse will come from elsewhere – a seemingly minor, irrelevant and trivial event.
29. The tragic and horrific events that are unfolding on the World stage are not about oil or religion; they are about the conflicts and stresses of economic-monetary-financial systems that have been abused, corrupted, manipulated and superficially misunderstood and which will naturally seek correction, as any force, as well as the misguided political belief that war is the final yet singular ultimate solution to all the economic woes of civilization in an idiotic, insane and dumbed-down guise of “Globalization”, a la Americana.
30. There is no global conspiracy - only a fusion of powerfully backed static ideologies in continuing cyclic process and despite where the resultant outcomes may be imagined and controlled, by some, albeit in fantasy shrieked loudly from every available podium, the future will however remain intangible, imperceptible and unknown until such time that man has found rationality or arrives.

Summary:

The US economy is today mostly (around 70%) based on consumer spending and consumer spending today is founded (~90%) in debt; house prices are falling and consumer spending is diminishing while costs inflate – a process called stagflation.

As spending declines, house values collapse, jobs disappear, manufacturing goes offshore, confidence erodes, government spending increases, foreign purchase of US debt lessens, productivity falls, etc., etc., then two things happen; they are interrelated but yet, separated:

A. The US monetary-financial equities fall off the edge of the cliff - across the board, as per the late ‘20’s and,

B. The Housing/property market (bubble) collapses in a loud “splat”. And, where the effects of “B” being far worse than those of “A”.

Both the above options are bad and as aforesaid, “B” is far worse than “A” (an “A” collapse was felt in late 2000 and early 2001). But an “A” & “B” combined and synchronized collapse brings the whole world to its knees. It is this “A” &”B” storm; the “perfect” collapse; the Mother of ALL collapses - that is on our event horizon, now!

Don’t believe me? No problem, but I do recommend that you independently research the options that are available. Accleration means acceleration and is not a constant statistic.

Of Notable Account:

Nobody wants to hear about disastrous or bad news events – particularly if things and conditions are just fine at the time of the tell. This condition is intellectual sleep; “Newtonian sleep” (William Blake); it is comfort; it is the norm in most Western societies; the sleep of irresponsibility and the assignment of one’s future (and life) to the hands of others. Television, canned conversation, the warm comfort of the paradigm, pursuit of leisure and comfort, belief in the “system”, blind trust; or just surfing what is foreseen as a smooth pleasure ride until the finality of death arrives. War, injustice, economic disasters, pain, etc., only happens to others and as such merely represents to most, weekend TV entertainment.

Apathy! It’s the human state at the top of the Bell Curve when the “Attentional Span” switches off, relaxes or reaches ‘stability’ and the individual survival instinct modes shuts down. It is the turning point and time for ‘stability’ to begin to morph, in accordance with due scientific process, into ‘instability’ as defined in Physics, by the Laws of Thermodynamics; in medical or biological terms it is called “extremis”. It’s also in accord with the Laws of Economics, as stated by Nobel laureate Hymen Minski. The accelerating downhill slide of the cyclic curve awaits the abyss.

Individual, family and community “well being” can only be maintained by constant vigilance; a vital message from the past brought to us by scholars of ancient cultures - where ‘sentience’ is a stated innate ability (risk computation) of man; homo sapien sapien; an attribute rarely utilized and more oft’ discarded. In analogy, life is a dynamic and as one must always be attentive and sentient when driving a motor vehicle; why do we choose and prefer to remain asleep when driving our lives?


The author’s message is:

A. That there is a need to urgently compute the Risk factors for the probability of a Global Economic Collapse in 2006 as described herein, and

B. That planning for such events now, could offset and indeed circumvent the worst potential effects of such an event.

C. That Australia and some South East Asia countries are in a better position, than most to introduce measures that could offset the worst effects of a global meltdown.

D. It is now interesting to note that the major influences or forces of the global economy have now shifted or are shifting from the West to the East as recently reported. This suggests that as the West declines, the East arises in terms of economic forces.


There is always a choice!



Final note: This author has no doubt that this paper; that is, his work as presented herein, will be enthusiastically and deterministically ignored as well as probably daemonized and adversely (and possibly noisily so) criticized by the majority of readers. Notwithstanding, the author’s position is that he is: not advocating the end of the World; that a bleak future is neither mandatory, necessary, nor essential; and, that his predictions are correct (although the time-line may be slightly variable)… within the terms of the looming culmination of the current crisis related processes of economic correction. And, that the psychological effects on the unprepared will be the end or hard measure of this causal physical effect.

* Fascism: In the words of Benito Mussolini: "Fascism reasserts the rights of the State as expressing the real essence of the individual And if liberty is to he the attribute of living men and not of abstract dummies invented by individualistic liberalism, then Fascism stands for liberty, and for the only liberty worth having, the liberty of the State and of the individual within the State The Fascist conception of the State is all embracing; outside of it no human or spiritual values can exist, much less have value. Thus understood, Fascism, is totalitarian, and the Fascist State - a synthesis and a unit inclusive of all values - interprets, develops, and potentates the whole life of a people."

“When most people hear the word "fascism" they naturally think of its ugly racism and anti-Semitism as practiced by the totalitarian regimes of Mussolini and Hitler. But there was also an economic policy component of fascism, known in Europe during the 1920s and '30s as "corporatism," that was an essential ingredient of economic totalitarianism as practiced by Mussolini and Hitler. So- called corporatism was adopted in Italy and Germany during the 1930s and was held up as a "model" by quite a few intellectuals and policy makers in the United States and Europe. A version of economic fascism was in fact adopted in the United States in the 1930s and survives to this day. In the United States these policies were not called "fascism" but "planned capitalism." The word fascism may no longer be politically acceptable, but its synonym "industrial policy" is as popular as ever.” Thomas J. DiLorenzo

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About Me

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I am now considered too old to be of further threat but I have survived three institutional attempts to prematurely end my life during my career. The current Global Systemic Collapse (GSC), better described as a 'global leadership collapse' (GLC), is a socio-economic phase-transition brought about by the total failure of global "leadership", to find even the most basic of foresight and compassionate sensitivities to balance the imbalances and injustices that they have wrought on the World. Governments' are now attempting to create an exclusive risk-free corporate environment. This delusional ideology of pure insanity, cannot sustain. This sought "risk-free' corporate banking environment is to be achieved by transferring all risk and all financial losses to the tax-payers (“Main Street”) while maintaining a highly secretive cabal of global elites and ruling politician and bankers. The simple truth is that our "Economic Theory" is a fatally flawed, faith-based farce, and "leadership" do not have the necessary intelligence nor intellect to confront the issues du jour. There are now only Heretics and Fools, but, there is always a “choice”.